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Australian counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen argues in his new book 'The Accidental Guerrilla' that neither further escalation in Afghanistan (beyond the 17,000 Obama has already authorised), nor a scaling back to concentrate on counterterrorism, is a good option for the US in Afghanistan.

He points out that most of the local population had no major grievance against the US - till the war started. It is vital to separate the them from the Al Qaeda, and to avoid heavy-handed military actions that can lead to public backlash.

But pulling out will not be in US interests. Obama needs to walk a thin line between escalation and the use of minimal force.